Dawnsinger

So here it is, Rising Tide Conference day, and ironically (or not, since we're in the peak of hurricane season), Tropical Storm Ernesto has locals flocking to Home Depot and Lowe's, or packing for the first potential evacuation of the year.

The latest five-day forecast map shows Ernesto entering the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane, and making a beeline straight for New Orleans.

Realistically, it's a long way off, and there's plenty of time for that track to shift.  If I was a betting man, I'd put money on Mobile or Pensacola.  But I'm not a betting man, and so I've got my refill orders in for my diabetes medication (was off meds for two weeks during Katrina).  My survival bags have been packed for months, as I will not be evacuating in any case this year.  My place will be with the forward news team of the Times-Picayune.

For New Orleans, which will need to evacuate tens of thousands from FEMA trailers in the face of even a tropical storm, this looming tempest adds a nervous touch of fear to the Hurricane Katrina anniversary.